Africa's Great Green Wall: Boon or Bane?

[Kev]

The Great Green Wall (GGW) project, launched in 2007 by the African Union, represents one of the most ambitious environmental and socio-economic initiatives globally, aimed at restoring degraded landscapes in the Sahel region. Let's discover its scope, objectives, stakeholders, funding, progress, and the broader implications of its multifaceted impact.

Key Points​

• The Great Green Wall (GGW) is an African-led project to restore degraded land in the Sahel, aiming to combat desertification and climate change, with progress ongoing but challenges like funding and security noted.
• It targets restoring 100 million hectares, sequestering 250 million tons of carbon, and creating 10 million jobs by 2030, though meeting these goals seems uncertain given current pace.
• It involves 22 African countries and organizations like the African Union, UNCCD, and World Bank, with over $19 billion pledged as of 2024, though funding gaps remain.
• Evidence leans toward it contributing to SDGs like poverty reduction, food security, and climate action, with local climate benefits like temperature moderation, but global impacts are still emerging.
• The project seems likely to improve local food systems by enhancing agriculture, with potential global benefits, though controversy exists over its effectiveness and completion by 2030.

Video by Andrew Millison

GGW Project Background​

The GGW was initially conceived as a physical barrier of trees to combat desertification and halt the southward expansion of the Sahara Desert, inspired by earlier projects like Algeria’s Green Dam and China’s Three-North Shelterbelt. However, it has evolved into a broader initiative focusing on integrated rural development, spanning nearly 8,000 kilometers from Senegal to Djibouti across 22 African countries, including core members like Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, and associated partners like Cameroon and Ghana. It aims to create a mosaic of green and productive landscapes through reforestation, agroforestry, sustainable agriculture, and water harvesting, addressing interconnected challenges of climate change, poverty, and food insecurity.

GGW Objectives and Targets​

The GGW’s objectives, set for completion by 2030, are ambitious and multifaceted:

• Land Restoration: Restore 100 million hectares of degraded land, a critical step to combat desertification.
• Carbon Sequestration: Sequester 250 million tons of carbon to contribute to global climate mitigation.
• Job Creation: Generate 10 million green jobs, particularly targeting youth and women to foster economic development.
• Food and Water Security: Enhance agricultural productivity and resilience to ensure food and water security for communities.
• Climate Resilience: Build adaptive capacity in a region where temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average.
• Biodiversity Conservation: Protect and restore ecosystems, providing habitats for wildlife and preserving native plant species.

These goals align with a vision of fostering peace, reducing resource-driven conflicts, and curbing forced migration by stabilizing the region’s environment and economy.

Stakeholder Involvement and Governance of the GGW Project​

The project is led by the African Union, with the Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall (PAGGW) overseeing implementation across 11 core member states, and additional countries participating as associated partners. International support is robust, involving:

• United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): Provides technical expertise and hosts the GGW Accelerator, launched in 2021 to boost funding and coordination.
• Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): Supports sustainable land management and community-based restoration efforts.
• Global Environment Facility (GEF) and World Bank: Early investments included $2 billion, with ongoing contributions through the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF).
• Green Climate Fund (GCF) and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD): Fund climate-resilient projects, such as the $143 million Africa Integrated Climate Risk Management Programme (AICRM).
• African Development Bank (AfDB): Committed $6.5 billion in 2021, with $3.32 billion committed through 83 national and 29 multinational projects by 2024.
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP): Promotes ecosystem restoration as part of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030).

National governments integrate GGW priorities into development strategies, with France also playing a key role, hosting the One Planet Summit in 2021 where the GGW Accelerator was launched.

GGW Funding and Budgetary Allocations​

The GGW requires an estimated $33 billion to achieve its 2030 targets, with over $19 billion pledged or mobilized as of April 2025. Key funding details include:

• One Planet Summit (2021): Secured $14.3 billion in pledges for 2021–2025 from donors like France, the World Bank, and AfDB.
• African Development Bank: Pledged $6.5 billion, with significant disbursements by 2024.
• GEF and World Bank: Initial investments of $2 billion, with ongoing support.
• GCF and IFAD: Multi-country projects like AICRM bolster local efforts.

Despite these commitments, the UNCCD estimates $4.3 billion annually is needed to restore 8.2 million hectares per year, highlighting funding gaps and reliance on external donors, with some criticism that Sahel countries have not allocated sufficient national budgets.

GGW Timelines and Implementation Phases​

Launched in 2007, the GGW targets completion by 2030, operating on a phased approach with localized initiatives. Key milestones include:

• 2007: Official adoption by the African Union.
• 2012: Harmonized regional strategy adopted by the African Ministerial Conference on Environment (AMCEN).
• 2021: Launch of the GGW Accelerator to fast-track progress.
• 2024: Unveiling of the GGW Observatory in May for real-time progress tracking.

The phased approach allows countries to tailor implementation based on capacity and needs, with the 2030 deadline critical for achieving its ambitious targets.

GGW Implementation Progress and Challenges​

As of early 2025, approximately 20 million hectares have been restored, up from 18 million in 2023, representing about 20% of the target. Country-specific progress includes:

Country	Progress Details
Ethiopia	Restored 15 million hectares, planted 5.5 billion seedlings
Senegal	Restored 90,000 acres, planted over 11 million trees
Nigeria	Restored 4.9 million hectares
Chad	Planted 1.1 million trees, lags behind

Challenges include political instability (e.g., Mali, Burkina Faso), terrorism, funding delays, and low tree survival rates in arid zones. The GGW Observatory aims to address monitoring issues, but experts warn the 2030 target is ambitious given current pace.

How GGW Contributes to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)​

The GGW aligns with multiple SDGs, offering direct and indirect benefits:

• SDG 1 (No Poverty): Green jobs and income from products like gum arabic lift communities out of poverty.
• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Restored land boosts agricultural yields, enhancing food security, with evidence suggesting it supports 9 million rural families.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): Carbon sequestration and climate resilience address global warming.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): Reforestation combats desertification and restores biodiversity.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work): Job creation empowers youth and women, with over 335,000 jobs created by 2021.
• Indirect Contributions: Supports SDG 5 (Gender Equality) through community-led efforts and SDG 16 (Peace and Justice) by reducing resource conflicts.

Scientific Basis of the GGW Project and Its Climate Modification Effect​

The GGW is grounded in ecological science, using an integrated landscape approach and selecting native species like Acacia senegal and Balanites aegyptiaca for their resilience and economic value. It draws lessons from projects like the Algerian Green Dam and China’s Three-North Shelterbelt, emphasizing species diversity to withstand climate variability.

Local Climate Impact:​

• Reduces soil erosion, retains moisture, and moderates temperatures, potentially enhancing local rainfall through increased evapotranspiration.
• Studies suggest restored landscapes could decrease average summertime temperatures in the Sahel by up to 1.5°C.

Global Climate Impact:​

• Sequestering 250 million tons of carbon contributes to global mitigation, though its scale is modest compared to total emissions. Its success could inspire similar initiatives worldwide, amplifying impact.

Impact of GGW Project on Food Systems​

Local Impact:​

• Restored land supports climate-smart agriculture, pastoralism, and agroforestry, increasing crop and livestock productivity. Fruit-bearing trees like baobab combat malnutrition, while sustainable practices reduce reliance on overgrazed soils.
• A study in Nigeria found significant health improvements for children near community-based orchards, with a 0.5 standard deviation increase in height-to-age z-scores, indicating better nutrition.
• TREE Aid reports that land restoration allows 9 million rural families to grow sufficient food, with over 335,000 jobs created and $90 million in revenue from non-timber forest products.

Global Impact:​

• By stabilizing the Sahel—a region critical to African food production—the GGW could ease pressure on global food markets strained by climate-induced shortages. Its model of resilience may influence dryland farming practices elsewhere, potentially reducing global food insecurity.

Why Does the GGW Matter and What's the Public Interest?​

The GGW is a frontline defense against converging global crises, particularly relevant given the Sahel’s vulnerability to climate change and rapid population growth (projected to reach 300 million by 2039). Its failure could trigger mass migration and conflict, with implications for regional and global stability. It preserves biodiversity in a region rich with unique species and serves as a model for nature-based solutions, inspiring global action. As a symbol of hope and collective effort, it warrants attention and support from policymakers, researchers, and the public.

Key Questions​

• Is It Working? Yes, with 20 million hectares restored by early 2025, but progress is uneven, and security and funding issues threaten the 2030 goal.
• Who Funds It? A mix of international donors and African institutions, though more national investment is needed.
• Can It Succeed? With scaled-up support, including carbon credits and private sector involvement, it’s possible, but current challenges suggest it may miss targets.